Cornering the markets
中国商品垄断全球市场
翻译：janewfj
校对：ry.yuan, May
How China continues to reshape the world of commodities
中国如何继续重塑商品世界
THE world’s biggest consumer of commodities is no longer just an insatiable buyer of everything from coal to gold. A richer, slower-growing and choosier China is becoming an exporter as well as importer. It is also using its clout to change the way commodities are traded, bringing markets closer to home and drawing up rules that suit its needs instead of those of producers and Western financiers.
作为世界最大的商品消费国，中国不再源源不断地购买包括煤炭和黄金在内的各种商品。如今的中国更富有，更挑剔，经济增速也有所放缓。中国不仅是进口国，也在转型成为出口国。中国利用其影响力改变商品交易方式，将商品市场转移至本土，制定符合自身需求，而非生产商和西方金融家需求的方针政策。
This week, for example, Chinese regulators gave the go-ahead for foreigners to trade crude-oil futures in Shanghai. When that starts—probably by November—it will be the first time that outsiders have been allowed to buy and sell a listed Chinese futures contract. This is part of a clear plan to change the way commodities are traded, says Owain Johnson of the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME). The exchange in Dalian, a port through which many commodities enter China, has become the biggest trading centre for iron ore in the world in less than two years. Shanghai has developed big markets in nickel and copper.
比方说，中国政府本周批准外国人可在上海进行原油期货的交易。该政策预计在十一月前实施。届时，外国人将首次得以买卖已在国内上市的期货合约。迪拜商品交易所(DME)欧文•约翰逊（Owain Johnson）表示，中国制定了旨在改变商品交易方式的清晰蓝图，此举是整个规划的一部分。作为商品进口的重要门户，港市大连在不到两年的时间里已跻身成为全球最大铁矿交易中心。上海则形成了广阔的铜镍市场。
Many expect more gold trading to move to China too. Allegations of rigging have rocked the current hub, in London. China—the world’s largest producer of bullion—announced on June 26th that it would launch a yuan-denominated gold contract in Shanghai by the end of the year. China is reaching “critical mass” in its influence on commodity prices,” says Grant Sporre of Deutsche Bank.
据多方预测，黄金交易将逐渐转移至国内。金价操纵指控导致目前的黄金交易中心——伦敦遭遇大幅震荡。作为全球最大金银生产国，中国在6月26日宣布将于年底前在上海启动以人民币计价的黄金期货合同。德意志银行（Deutsche Bank）的格兰特•斯波尔（Grant Sporre）认为，中国对商品价格的影响力正接近临界点。
This is a much more sophisticated way of wielding clout than in the past. An attempt by China in 2010 to corner the market in rare earths—17 exotic metals used in tiny quantities in many modern devices—failed spectacularly. China, which at the time produced 97% of the ores for rare earths, banned exports in the hope of bringing the business of processing these deposits onshore. But rare earths proved not so rare: companies elsewhere revived old mines and ramped up production; by late 2011 prices had plunged.
中国如今施加影响的方式比以往高明得多。2010年，中国就曾试图垄断稀土市场——包括17种少量用于诸多现代设备的稀土金属。不过该计划最终一败涂地。当时中国的稀土矿产量占全球的97%,为将稀土矿加工业转移至本土，中国采取了禁止出口措施。但事实证明稀土资源并非那么稀有，国外企业重新开采了旧矿并扩大产量，导致2011年底稀土价格大跌。
The goal now is to seize control of price formation. The main global benchmark for crude oil, Brent, relies on data compiled by price-reporting agencies about deals done during a short “window” in the middle of the trading day. State-controlled Chinese oil companies have been playing an increasingly active role in that process, but from the Chinese government’s point of view, bringing the trading closer cuts costs and reduces the impact of events in faraway places from which the country imports little oil. “They ask: ‘Why should a Norwegian oil workers’ strike affect our economy?’” says Mr Johnson.
中国目前的目标是控制价格构成。价格调查机构针对交易日中期的短期窗口期间达成的交易编撰出相关数据，全球原油价格主要基准布伦特原油（Brent）就是基于这些数据。在此过程中，国企中石油所起的作用越来越大，但中国政府表示，将交易活动转移至国内不但有利于降低价格，还能减少向中国出口石油微乎其微的遥远地区发生事件的负面影响。约翰逊说：“中国政府质问说：‘凭什么要让挪威石油工人罢工影响到我们的经济？’。”
As the world’s biggest importer, China wants its own benchmark instead, based on transparent and comprehensive data, priced in its own currency and governed by its own laws. The Shanghai oil-futures contract aims to achieve that goal.
作为全球最大进口国，中国希望基于透明公开的全方位数据制定一套人民币计价的价格基准，受中国法律管辖。上海石油期货合约的设立便是出于这个目的。
As exchanges in mainland China grow, rivals are feeling the squeeze. The Shanghai Futures Exchange is impeding efforts by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing to expand its metals-trading business, following the acquisition of the London Metal Exchange in 2012. In March the Shanghai exchange threatened to sue its Singaporean counterpart for copying a futures contract.
随着中国大陆交易市场不断扩大，竞争对手受到了挤兑。港交所在2012年收购伦敦金属交易所后，试图拓宽金属交易业务，却受到了上海期货交易所的阻挠。今年三月，上海期货交易所以照搬某期货合约为由威胁起诉新加坡期货交易所。
Several obstacles lie ahead, however. Outsiders will not be keen to bear the exchange-rate risk of trades denominated in yuan. The security of the English legal system in case of disputes will be hard to match. Confidence has been dented by a scandal involving Chinese commodity warehouses, in which metals were used as collateral for letters of credit to get around foreign-exchange restrictions.
然而，中国面临多个阻碍。外方不愿承担人民币计价交易所涉及的汇率风险。就处理纠纷而言，英国法律制度的安全性是很难超越的。加上中国商品市场发生了一起金属被用作信用证抵押品来避开外汇管制的丑闻，导致市场信心挫败。
China is putting a fresh imprint on commodity markets in other ways too. As its economy slows and investment gives way to consumption as the mainstay of growth, the country’s needs are changing. Demand for primary products used mainly in housing and infrastructure—coal, iron ore, steel and aluminium—is slowing. China has already hit “peak coal” (consumption is falling, amid worries about air pollution); peak steel is not far off, with growth of only 1-3% likely after a dip last year. Even copper is fading a bit. Consumption used to grow faster than GDP, notes Colin Hamilton of Macquarie, a bank; now it lags. A related headache is that China, once a sponge for raw materials, is becoming an exporter of things like stainless steel and aluminium, thanks to cheap and abundant power, growing technological nous and a glut of smelting capacity.
中国还采取其他手段在商品市场打上新的烙印。由于经济增速放缓，消费取代投资成为增长支柱，中国的需求也发生了转变。中国对于包括煤炭、铁矿石、钢铁和铝在内的初级产品的需求正在降低，这些产品主要用于住房和基础设施。中国已达到煤炭峰值（空气污染忧虑导致消费需求下降）；钢铁峰值也近在眼前，钢铁价格自去年下跌后只有1%—3%的增长。就连铜的需求也出现微降。麦格理银行的科林•汉密尔顿（Colin Hamilton）指出，中国的消费增速过去高于GDP增速，可如今却低于GDP增速。与此相关的一个问题是，作为过去的原材料进口大国，中国凭借富余的廉价能源、不断提升的科技实力及过硬的熔炼能力，正转型成为不锈钢和铝等产品的出口国。
Instead, exporters must look to other commodities for growth. Richer Chinese consumers are stoking demand for dairy products, meat, chocolate and jewellery. That has an effect both on those items directly and on the commodities used to produce them. While imports of iron ore wane, for example, demand for soyabeans, which are used mainly to feed livestock, continues to grow rapidly (see chart). That is partly because China has paved over lots of soya farms, but mainly because meat consumption is up.
然而，出口国必须寻求其他产品来拉动增长。较富有的中国消费者正推动乳制品、肉类、巧克力和珠宝的需求。这不仅直接影响到这些产品本身，还会影响到产品的生产原料。虽然铁矿石进口量减少，但主要用于饲养家畜的大豆的需求却持续快速增长（见图表）。一部分是因为中国大幅减少大豆农场用地，但主要原因是肉类消费实现了增长。
Yet it is not certain that this trend will persist. The average Chinese already consumes more calories than the global average, and almost 85% of the American level. A healthy switch from pork to chicken would actually cut demand for agricultural commodities, notes Capital Economics, a consultancy. Hershey, a big confectionery company, has had to trim its forecasts for sales growth in China.
但这一趋势能否延续却是未知数。中国的人均卡路里消耗量高于世界平均水平，几乎占到美国人均水平的85%。咨询公司资本经济（Capital Economics）指出，从食用猪肉到鸡肉的健康转变有助于减少对农产品的需求。糖果巨头好时公司迫于无奈，已调低在华销售增长预期。
Whether China adopts old Western habits or opts for thriftier and healthier ones will shape the commodities industry. But its impact on trading is even more immediate. As every good capitalist knows, the customer is always right. China is using its buyer’s clout to ensure that commodities are traded the way it wants.
中国是沿袭西方国家的旧习还是选择更经济健康的习惯，将重塑商品产业。中国对贸易的影响力更是立竿见影。每个出色的资本家都知道，顾客永远是正确的。中国正利用买方的影响力来确保商品交易方式如其所愿。
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